Office of Shared Accountability Reports

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Title: An Updated Model Predicting High School Students' Attainment of Core Credits in Grade 9

Topic: Student Achievement
Produced by: Research Team
Published: December 2016
Authors: Helen Y. Wang, Ph.D.
Keywords: course prediction model, college readiness
Years of Study: 2014-2015, 2015-2016
School Levels: High
Format: Brief
Pages: 7

Description: The brief describes the recent updates made to the Grade 9 course prediction model by the Office of Shared Accountability (OSA). The updated model correctly predicts for 92.2 percent of all first-time Grade 9 students on whether or not earning at least four core credits. The prediction information can help high school administrators and teachers identify students who are at risk of course failure in Grade 9 and plan corresponding interventions so that more students can stay on track toward college and career readiness.


  • Schools use Grade 9 course prediction in conjunction with the recent MCPS milestone student-level data and students' performance in Grade 9
  • OSA will provide high schools with Grade 9 course predictions in March and August.
  • OSA will conduct cross-validation studies for the update Grade 9 course prediction model to accommodate data changes in the future.

File name: 2017 Research Brief Core Credits Grade 9_NOV2016 dh.pdf

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